WASHINGTON (AP) — Tensions are rising over Cuba, but U.S. officials say there is no sign of imminent military action despite President Donald Trump’s repeated warnings that “Cuba is next” and suggestions that warships returning from the Middle East could pass near the island in a show of force.

Behind closed-door discussions and escalating rhetoric, officials describe a situation that is volatile but not yet moving toward war, even as sanctions tighten and diplomatic talks continue in fragile form.

US MILITARY POSTURE

U.S. officials involved in preliminary talks with Cuban authorities say Washington is not currently preparing for immediate military action against Havana.

They also stressed that while military options remain on the table, the current focus is on pressure and negotiations rather than conflict.

One official cautioned that Trump could change course at any moment, keeping uncertainty high around the administration’s next move.

Trump has suggested that a U.S. aircraft carrier returning from the Middle East could pass near Cuba in a symbolic display of power.

He said one of the U.S. aircraft carriers on its way back from the Middle East could “come in, stop about 100 yards offshore, and they’ll say: ‘Thank you very much. We give up.’”

SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE INTENSIFY

The diplomatic pressure comes alongside new sanctions announced by the Treasury and State departments after Trump expanded executive authority to target Cuba.

The largest sanction targets GAESA, or Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A., a powerful military-run Cuban conglomerate that plays a major role in the island’s economy.

Officials say the strategy is designed to force policy changes in Havana without explicitly pursuing regime change.

One official involved in the discussions said the new sanctions authority was intended, however, to make clear to the Cubans that the Trump administration’s immediate goal is “not regime change, but changing the regime’s failed policies.”

CUBA REJECTS U.S. PRESSURE

Cuban officials have strongly condemned the sanctions, calling them an attack on the country and its population.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez described the measures as “collective punishment” and denounced the U.S. government’s “genocidal intent against Cuba.”

“These actions rely on the assumption that the United States can impose its will on the world while threatening foreign citizens and businesses with illegitimate coercion,” Rodríguez wrote on X.

TALKS STILL OPEN BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN STALLED

Despite escalating sanctions, U.S. officials say Cuba has not fully rejected a proposal that includes tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid, two years of free Starlink internet access, agricultural assistance and infrastructure support.

However, they acknowledge Havana is unlikely to accept the conditions attached to the offer, which include deep political reforms.

Those conditions include the release of political prisoners, an end to political and religious repression, and opening the country to U.S. private investment.

One U.S. official said it is still uncertain whether Cuba’s leadership will agree to any of these terms, but dialogue remains open.

REGIONAL SECURITY AND GLOBAL RIVALRY CONCERNS

U.S. officials also point to broader security concerns, warning about growing Chinese and Russian influence in Cuba, including intelligence and logistics cooperation.

They describe Cuba’s location as strategically sensitive due to its proximity to the United States.

CUBA DRAWS A HARD LINE

Havana, however, says its internal governance is not negotiable under any circumstances.

“Negotiations on issues like regime change or removing the president are out of the question,” Cuban Ambassador to the United Nations Ernesto Soberón Guzmán told reporters last week. “No internal affairs of Cuba are on the table.”

He also warned that Cuba is preparing for all possible outcomes if U.S. threats escalate further.

“Cuban officials are adamant, though, that Cuba’s internal governance is not up for negotiation.”

Guzmán also told The Associated Press that Cuba will not accept U.S. ultimatums regarding political prisoners and accused Washington of preparing coercive measures.

“Traveling 4,500 miles to meet with the Pope, supposedly to request his ‘good offices’ in delivering U.S. humanitarian assistance to the Cuban people through the Church, while at the same time claiming that the blockade does not exist, is a blatant insult to human intelligence,” Guzmán said Thursday in a statement.

TRUMP AND RUBIO HARDEN RHETORIC

President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a tougher stance, suggesting Cuba could face consequences if it does not change course.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose family fled Cuba, has taken an especially hard line, arguing the country’s leadership is failing economically and politically.

“And the reason that they can’t fix it is not just because they’re communist. That’s bad enough,” he told reporters Tuesday at the White House. “But they’re incompetent communists. The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent one.”

Rubio is currently visiting Rome and Vatican City, where discussions include Cuba and the Catholic Church’s influence on the island.

DIPLOMATIC CONTACT CONTINUES BEHIND THE SCENES

Despite public tensions, quiet diplomatic engagement has increased.

Officials confirm meetings between U.S. and Cuban representatives in third countries, including a meeting in St. Kitts and Nevis involving Rubio and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, a figure believed to hold influence in Havana.

More recently, senior State Department officials Jeremy Lewin and Michael Kozak led a delegation to Havana on April 10 to meet with Rodríguez Castro.

That meeting, described as “professional and cordial,” did not produce concrete progress and left U.S. officials skeptical about Cuba’s willingness to implement meaningful reforms.

It also marked the first U.S. government flight to Cuba outside Guantanamo Bay since 2016, during the Obama-era thaw in relations.

OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

While no immediate military action appears planned, officials on both sides acknowledge the situation remains unstable.

The combination of sanctions, diplomatic outreach and military signaling has left relations at a fragile crossroads, with no clear resolution in sight.