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A Russian general who previously led the invasion force in Ukraine has not been seen in public since last Saturday. General Surovikin, head of the Russian aerospace forces and former supreme commander in Ukraine may have had prior knowledge of the mutiny led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The speculation is that Putin may have purged General Sergei Surovikin.

His connections to Prigozin are well-known. Prigozhin publicly welcomed Surovikin's appointment in October 2022. And was critical of his demotion in January 2023. 

General Survokin Disappears

Wagner's force, estimated to be around 15,000 in Ukraine, was a subset of the group that attempted to march on Moscow this weekend. It is estimated that around 8,000 troops and vehicles were involved.

On Friday, Surovikin denounced the uprising and expressed support for the Russian government on social media. 

The New York Times, citing Western intelligence sources, reported that Surovikin may have had prior knowledge of the plot. It remains uncertain if he actively participated.

The reports of Surovikin's alleged knowledge of Prigozhin’s armed uprising shed light on the military's lackluster response to the uprising. 

The mutiny reportedly resulted in at least 4 Russian airforce planes being shot down. And some airmen's deaths. Most fighter pilots reportedly refused to attack the Wagner convoy. 

American military analyst Rob Lee said Wagner fought troops technically loyal to Surovikin over the weekend.

“Just want to emphasize that Surovikin is the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and Wagner shot down 7+ aircraft, including several aircraft that weren’t armed,” he wrote on Wednesday. “Strange thing to do if the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces was actively supporting you.”

 Aftermath

So far no criminal cases have been publicly opened against the rebellion. 

Prigozhin has called the deaths of the airmen “regrettable”.

He has been exiled to Belarus. In his latest statement, he said his troops were largely peaceful and that “not a single soldier on the ground” had died during their 24-hour uprising.

Speculations about large-scale purges and loyalty tests within the military administration bodies have been circulating, but details remain unconfirmed.

The impact of the mutiny on President Putin's position is uncertain.

 US President, Joe Biden, acknowledged the disunity within the ranks but noted that top generals, including Surovikin, ultimately offered their support to the Kremlin.

Tatiana Stanovaya, CEO of R.Politik, suggested that while Surovikin may have been aware of the plan, he sided with the state when necessary, and his working relationship with Prigozhin may have been approved by Putin.

Although the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, denied the New York Times report, he acknowledged the speculation surrounding the events.

 The situation continues to unfold, and the aftermath of the mutiny may lead to significant changes and a loyalty test within the Russian armed forces. 

Investigators and representatives of the Russian Federal Security Service are reportedly examining the military leadership and commanders for any signs of involvement.