Spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on December 27, 2024, the asteroid is estimated to be 180 feet (55 meters) in diameter. While it is not large enough to destroy the planet, it has a 1-in-83 chance of becoming a “city killer” on December 22, 2032.

NASA scientists have identified the massive asteroid, named 2024 YR4, which poses a potential threat to Earth in the coming years.

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ATLAS Predicts City Killer Danger

Although its odds of impact are small—about 1.2%—2024 YR4 could wreak havoc if it collides with Earth. Scientists predict it would release approximately 8 megatons of energy, more than 500 times the force of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Such an event could obliterate a city but would not cause global devastation.

“This object’s level-three rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale means there’s a 1% or greater chance of localized destruction,” according to the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). However, they add, “Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to a re-assignment to Level 0,” signifying no hazard.

2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth but will have several near passes in the next 50 years. Its closest approach will occur in late 2028, followed by six more encounters between 2032 and 2074. The highest chance of impact remains on December 22, 2032.

Why Monitoring Asteroids Matters

Threats like 2024 YR4 highlight the importance of monitoring space debris. Potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) frequently enter Earth’s vicinity, but most pose minimal risk. For comparison, asteroid 99942 Apophis, once rated at level 4 on the Torino scale, was eventually downgraded to zero after additional observations ruled out any significant impact risk.

NASA continues to develop asteroid redirection techniques, such as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission conducted in 2024. While the chances of a catastrophic asteroid impact are low, astronomers emphasize the need for vigilance.

“Scientists must keep watching the skies,” experts warn, noting that an asteroid impact as devastating as the one that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, while rare, remains a possibility.