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However, Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at the Polytechnic University of Milan, noted that a yacht of The Bayesian's size would need to take in a massive amount of water to sink so quickly. This suggests that other factors may have contributed to the tragedy.

Bad Weather Tragedy

The yacht’s captain, James Catfield, from New Zealand, recounted the suddenness of the waterspout that turned a luxurious superyacht into a deadly trap. “We just didn’t see it coming,” Catfield told Italian media.

Colonel Attilio Di Diodato, director of the Italian Air Force’s Center for Aerospace Meteorology and Climatology, confirmed that the agency had recorded intense lightning activity and strong gusts of wind in the area during the time of the incident. 

Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society, expressed that the crew should have ensured all guests were awake and provided with lifejackets, given the forecast of heavy rains. 

The coast guard supported this sentiment, stating that while bad weather had been predicted, the storm’s intensity far exceeded expectations. Local reports described the event as a waterspout, or sea whirlwind, of exceptional force.

Meanwhile, the 42-meter Sir Robert Baden Powell remained anchored nearby successfully weathered the storm. Its captain, Karsten Borner, turned on the engine to maintain control and avoid a collision with The Bayesian. 

Borner commented that he was unsure whether the crew of The Bayesian had managed to activate their engines. “I don’t think they did things wrong; I think they were surprised by the power of the storm,” Borner said. 

He described the storm as “very violent, very intense,” adding that it brought in “a lot of water and I think a turning system like a tornado.”

The Bayesian Mast

The Bayesian was a marvel of nautical engineering, built in 2008 and boasting a 75-meter (246-foot) mast, which is claimed to be the tallest aluminum mast in the world.

 While the mast symbol of the yacht’s grandeur, it may have also contributed to its demise.

Captain Borner speculated that if the mast had broken, the yacht might not have capsized. 

“Having a tall aluminum mast would not make it the safest port to be in case of a storm,” noted Andrea Ratti. The intensity of the storm could have created a significant shock wave which further destabilized the vessel and led to its rapid sinking.