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WIDE RANGE OF FORECASTS

Forecasts for U.S. auto demand range widely, underscoring industry uncertainty.

Ford stuck this week to a forecast that 2017 sales would rise to 17.7 million vehicles while the NADA and other forecasters expect them to hover around 17 million. Consultancy AlixPartners expects U.S. new vehicle sales to reach 17.5 million this year, but forecasts a drop to 16.6 million in 2018 and 15.2 million in 2019 before a slow recovery.

Industry executives point to solid consumer confidence, low interest rates, rising transaction prices and an old car fleet on America's roads, where the average vehicle is over 11 years old, as they give voice to guarded optimism.

If the U.S. auto market downshifted to a 16 million vehicle annualized pace for more than 45 days, that would be a concern, said GM's head of North American operations, Alan Batey.

“I don’t think we are going to see it,” he said.

Wall Street will be watching to see how quickly automakers respond to slow sales and rising inventories heading into the summer months. One way to cut stocks of unsold cars is to extend traditional summer assembly plant shutdowns.

Mark Wakefield, head of AlixPartners' automotive practice in the Americas region, said car production has already has come down, a sign that industry is showing more discipline than in past cycles.

"The real test comes when an (automaker) defects in a large way and starts going for share and volume and dropping prices dramatically," Wakefield said. "What do the others do and how does the market manage itself?"

(Reporting by Nick Carey; Editing by Tom Brown)