WASHINGTON — For most of human history, global economic growth moved at a near-glacial pace. Nations rose and fell, but average living standards improved slowly and often unevenly. Then came the Industrial Revolution — and with it, what economic historian Kenneth Pomeranz famously called the “Great Divergence,” a period when industrializing nations surged ahead of the rest of the world in wealth, productivity, and geopolitical power.
Now, economists, policymakers, and technology leaders are asking a question that could define the 21st century:
Is artificial intelligence about to trigger a second Great Divergence?
And if so, will the United States lead it?
The Historical Parallel
The Industrial Revolution did not merely improve existing industries. It fundamentally transformed how value was created. Mechanization, steam power, electrification, and mass production accelerated economic growth in industrializing nations at rates previously unimaginable.
Countries that industrialized first accumulated capital, military strength, global influence, and institutional advantages that lasted generations.
