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America November 17, 2024 5 mins read

Dow 20,000: What does it mean and where does it go?

America ı By USA Herald

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Q. How is the Dow Jones industrial average doing relative to the rest of the market?

A. Not bad, but some other parts of the market are doing even better.

Small-company stocks and transportation stocks have had even bigger gains than the Dow has. The Russell 2000 of smaller stocks is up an astounding 38.6 percent over the last 12 months, versus 26.3 percent for the Dow.

Investors have been flocking to small-company stocks partly because they expect them to benefit more than large multinationals from a pickup in U.S. economic growth and the lower taxes and deregulatory drive that President Trump is promising. Transportation stocks are up even more. The Dow Jones transportation average, a cousin to the better-known industrial average, has soared 41.6 percent over the last 12 months.

Other parts of the market are also up, but not as much as the Dow. The Standard & Poor's 500 index has also been setting records, as has the Nasdaq composite, which is heavily weighted with technology and pharmaceutical companies. The S&P 500 is up 22.4 percent over the last year, and the Nasdaq composite, is up 25.2 percent.

Q. When did the Dow first close above 10,000?

A. On March 29, 1999.

Q: Does the Dow at 20,000 mean anything for my 401(k)?

A: Not directly. It's an indicator that stocks generally are doing well, but most stock funds in 401(k) and Individual Retirement Accounts track or compare themselves against other indexes.

The Dow had roughly $36 billion in investments tied to it, as of last spring, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P 500, meanwhile, had more than $2.1 trillion.

Q. So stocks have gone up a lot, what about bonds?

A. Bond prices have gone down a fair bit since the election, which has sent long-term interest rates higher. The day before the election, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is used to set rates on mortgages and other loans, was 1.85 percent. It now sits at 2.52 percent.

Investors have been selling bonds because they expect that the infrastructure spending plans of the president-elect could lead to faster economic growth and higher inflation, both of which are bad for bonds.

Q. What about other markets around the world, how are they doing?

A. In general, not as well as the U.S. market. In Europe, Italy's market is up just 5.1 percent over the last year. France's index has gained about half as much as the Dow has over the past year, while indexes in German and Britain lag the Dow slightly. Japan's market is up 11.4 percent over the last 12 months, less than half of the Dow's gain.

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