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A Historic Supply Shock

According to analysts at consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, the closure of the strait has triggered what could become the largest oil supply disruption in modern history.

The situation is particularly severe because key Gulf producers cannot access global markets.

With the waterway blocked, exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are effectively stranded inside the Persian Gulf, analysts said.

Unlike previous energy shocks, the world currently has little spare production capacity available to offset the loss.

Strategic Reserves Face Limits

Even the United States’ vast emergency oil stockpile may not fully cushion the blow.

The U.S. Department of Energy reports that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds about 415 million barrels of oil.

That amount represents roughly 58% of its authorized capacity of 714 million barrels.

Rapidan analysts warn that the reserve alone cannot replace the massive supply trapped inside the Persian Gulf.

Global Energy Agencies Under Pressure

Because of that reality, analysts say countries belonging to the International Energy Agency may face mounting pressure to coordinate the release of their strategic reserves.

“This is the only remaining supply response option,” Rapidan analysts said.

The coming hours could therefore prove critical for global energy markets.

If the G7 moves forward with a coordinated G7 oil reserve release, it could temporarily calm markets and restore some stability to the world’s energy supply chain.

But until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the global oil market may remain balanced on a razor’s edge — one geopolitical shock away from another price surge.