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By Samuel López | USA Herald

PANAMA CITY — If you want to understand who’s quietly winning amid the chaos unfolding in global shipping right now, don’t just watch the oil markets.

Watch the insurance sector.

Because while the world’s attention is fixed on missiles, chokepoints, and rerouted tankers, the real financial recalibration is happening behind the scenes — inside underwriting models, war-risk premiums, and maritime insurance contracts that are being rewritten in real time.

And in a twist that most casual observers are missing, this crisis may actually prove to be a net positive — at least in the short-to-mid term — for insurers.

Let me explain why.

At the center of this unfolding shift is the near paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor that typically handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. But today, that artery is no longer functioning like a commercial route. It’s functioning like a war zone.

Shipping traffic has, at times, collapsed to near standstill levels, with only a handful of vessels attempting passage compared to more than 100 per day under normal conditions. 

And when ships do attempt to pass through, they are paying the price — not just in fuel or logistics, but in insurance.

War-risk insurance premiums, which once hovered around fractions of a percent, have surged dramatically — in many cases reaching between 1% and 5% of a vessel’s total value, with some extreme scenarios pushing even higher. 

Put that into real-world numbers.

For a tanker worth $200 million, a single voyage through the Gulf could now carry millions of dollars in additional insurance costs.

That’s not a line item.

That’s a business model shift.

And here’s where it gets interesting — because while those costs are painful for shippers, they are revenue for insurers.

The insurance industry thrives on volatility — as long as that volatility is measurable, priceable, and insurable.

And right now, it is.

Major players in the global insurance market, including entities tied to the London insurance ecosystem and U.S.-backed reinsurance initiatives, are not retreating from the market. They’re recalibrating it.

Even as premiums rise sharply, coverage remains available — albeit at a cost that reflects the heightened risk environment. 

In fact, new insurance facilities are being launched specifically to address the crisis, including large-scale war-risk coverage programs designed to keep maritime trade flowing despite the dangers. 

That’s not contraction.

That’s expansion under pressure.