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June 4, 2026

America January 1, 2024 4 mins read

Biden Coalition Falls Apart as Trump Gains Ground: 2024 Election

America ı By Jackie Allen

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Biden coalition

As the 2024 election year unfolds, President Joe Biden finds himself grappling with unexpected challenges. The key demographics that formed the Biden Coalition for his victory in 2020 is falling apart.

 A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals that the Biden coalition is showing signs of strain, with Donald Trump making significant inroads among Hispanic voters, young people, and even a portion of Black voters.

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Biden Coalition Eroding Support

According to the poll, President Biden's approval ratings among specific demographics have seen a notable decline. Black voters, a crucial part of the Democratic base, now offer support to Biden at just 63%, a sharp drop from the 87% he secured in 2020.

 Among Hispanic voters, Biden trails Trump by 5 percentage points, a significant shift from the 2 to 1 advantage he enjoyed in the last election.

Even among younger voters, under 35, a demographic that overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020, the landscape has dramatically shifted. Trump now leads among this group by 4 percentage points, reflecting a concerning trend for the Democratic camp.

The Rise of Third-Party Candidates

A silver lining for Biden is that a considerable portion of the support he has lost hasn't necessarily transferred to Trump.

 Instead, 20% of Hispanic and Black voters, along with 21% of young voters, express an intention to back third-party candidates. While this might offer a glimmer of hope for Biden, it underscores the need for the president to reconnect with these crucial voting blocs.

Despite the political headwinds, there is a flicker of optimism for President Biden in the realm of economic perception.

 The survey indicates that 29% of respondents believe the economy is in recovery, an 8-percentage point increase since October 2023. This upswing in economic sentiment could potentially work in Biden's favor as he seeks to rally support.

Trump’s Legal Challenges

The challenge for Biden extends beyond mere approval ratings. Trump maintains a significant enthusiasm advantage, with 44% of his supporters expressing the highest level of enthusiasm compared to just 18% among Biden supporters.

While Trump faces legal challenges, including criminal trials and battles over primary ballot eligibility, his political support remains largely unaffected. Many supporters view these legal issues as politically motivated, contributing to Trump's high popularity ranking.

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Jackie Allen
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Jackie Allen

Jackie is a freelance journalist and technology geek. She worked as a telecom project director for AT&T and BellSouth. Before joining the USA Herald she has written books, articles, blogs and whitepapers. Her clients include Samsung and other technology companies.

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