Congress Demands Federal Investigation Into Polymarket After Suspicious Iran Ceasefire Bets Net Traders Hundreds Of Thousands In Moments Before Trump Announcement
Breaking News ı By Derek Johnson
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WASHINGTON, D.C. — Congressional anger is rapidly boiling over at the prediction market platform Polymarket after anonymous traders appeared to cash in on inside information once again — this time pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the frantic hours before President Donald Trump announced the deal on social media earlier this week. Lawmakers from both parties are now demanding answers, and Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, has formally called on federal regulators to launch a full-scale investigation into what he described Thursday as potential insider trading on a massive scale.
The latest controversy lands at an uncomfortable moment for Polymarket, which has grown explosively in the past two years into the world's largest cryptocurrency-based prediction market, processing billions of dollars in wagers on everything from elections and Supreme Court rulings to celebrity weddings and geopolitical crises. But what began as a quirky online betting parlor has increasingly come to resemble a shadow futures market where information asymmetries can be exploited to spectacular effect — and, critics say, without meaningful oversight.
The Iran Ceasefire Bets That Launched the Probe
According to reporting by the Associated Press and analysis of public blockchain records, at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the hours — and in some cases the minutes — before President Trump announced the agreement on his Truth Social account late Tuesday night. The bets were specific, well-timed and enormously profitable. Some of the accounts had been opened only hours earlier and had never placed a wager before.
At the time of the trades, there was no public indication that a ceasefire was imminent. The president's own statements earlier that day had suggested escalation, not de-escalation. American and Iranian officials had exchanged threats as recently as that morning. Yet somehow, dozens of brand-new accounts appeared simultaneously on Polymarket with the apparent conviction that a deal was hours away.
"This is not a coincidence," Rep. Torres wrote in a letter addressed to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig. Torres, who sits on the House Financial Services Committee and its digital assets subcommittee, urged the agency to obtain platform-level data, trace wallet linkages and keep Congress informed of what it finds.
A Pattern, Not an Isolated Incident
The Iran ceasefire bets are only the most recent in a growing pile of suspicious Polymarket wagers that have raised alarms. In January, an anonymous user reportedly pocketed roughly $400,000 by betting that Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro would leave office, placing the wager just hours before a U.S. operation captured him. Another account made roughly $550,000 in the hours before the start of the Iran war itself by betting that the U.S. would take military action. In both cases, the timing was too precise to be easily explained by public information alone.
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