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In our nation's political cycle, Democrats and Republicans stand as the two major groups. Third parties (including Independents, Libertarians, and others) exist, yet lack the institutional power to seriously compete with the GOP or Democratic Party.

Over the years, this has garnered public criticism. Many Americans feel both dominant groups intentionally collude to avoid competition that would water down their political clout. As more people claim that neither the GOP nor Democrats appropriately represent their welfare, there's been a sort of renewed interest in third parties.

Amid the 2024 race, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is running against Republican former President Donald Trump. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are likewise campaigning for the Oval Office, as are Green Party contender Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver.

So far, polling shows the race will come down to either a Trump or Harris victory in November. However, third party candidates could prove to be an effective danger to the former president.

Compelling data from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill

Multiple polls from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill provide electoral insight where Kennedy is included among the Republican and Democratic nominees. In a Harris vs. Trump vs. Kennedy matchup, the vice president carries a 3.2% lead. Yet when taking the Independent candidate out of the equation, Trump holds a 0.2% lead over Harris.

This data suggests Kennedy siphons more votes from Republicans than he does Democrats. Some conservative voters who aren't happy with Trump, yet can't bring themselves to cast a ballot for Harris, might instead opt to back Kennedy in November.

In other words, the Independent ticket currently lacks enough support to come close to 270 electoral votes. However, Kennedy's presence in the race can attract just enough right-wing support to tank Trump's chances at a second presidential term.

Polls don't vote, but people do

While polls are an indicator of public sentiment, what ultimately makes a difference is Americans who vote. On the Democratic side, Harris, Walz, and others are campaigning mightily to win the election. They're also attempting to reach voters across the political spectrum.

Some Republicans who feel disgruntled with Trump's hold over the GOP are now stating they'll vote for the vice president in November. If the Harris-Walz ticket gets strong in-party and crossover support as Trump-Vance loses votes to Kennedy, a Democratic election victory appears most likely.