Middle East Conflict Threatens to Upend Global Air Travel Model
America ı By Tyler Brooks
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At the same time, reduced capacity from Gulf carriers would likely push fares higher.
"Did the Gulf carriers cause lower fares? Yes they did. Take Gulf carriers out of the equation, air fares are going to go up, as sure as eggs are eggs."
European airlines have already adjusted, adding direct services to Asia that bypass the Gulf. British Airways has increased flights to Bangkok and Singapore, while Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have expanded their own routes.
However, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, cautions that European carriers cannot fully compensate for the Gulf’s capacity, which accounts for nearly 10% of global supply.
Speaking in Paris, he said "there is no way the capacity provided by carriers in the Gulf can be replaced by European carriers", though he expressed confidence in a recovery once hostilities subside.
High Stakes Beyond Aviation
Questions about the Gulf aviation model are not new. During the Covid-19 pandemic, some analysts doubted the resilience of long-haul, transit-focused carriers. Yet the sector rebounded quickly, with strong financial results in recent years.
"The aviation industry has seen Sars, it's seen Covid, it's seen geopolitical events in various parts of the world," says Grant. "It's seen stock market crashes, and it bounces back."
Still, the current crisis carries broader economic implications. Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, have invested heavily in diversifying their economies beyond oil and gas, with aviation playing a central role.
"With the ability to create aviation hubs, there was a major move in that diversification, because of the catalytic effect of aviation," Hogan says.
Ulrichsen adds that Dubai’s global appeal as a place to live and do business is closely tied to its connectivity.
That progress could be at risk if air travel does not rebound quickly. Tourism, in particular, is vulnerable.
"My intuition is this will have a lasting impact… because of the safety perception you have in your mind," says Johannes Thomas, chief executive of Trivago, who estimates recovery could take "maybe two to three years."
Hogan, however, remains confident.
"This is a major crisis, but it will be resolved at a point in time," he says. "I've seen it over the years. Some people in the early days may be apprehensive, but travellers will come back.
"I'm very bullish about what the Gulf has to offer."
For now, the conflict has dealt a significant blow to Gulf aviation, shaking confidence among travelers and disrupting a system that underpins global connectivity. Whether the region can quickly restore its role as a central hub will determine not only its own fortunes, but also the future shape of long-haul air travel worldwide.
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